1* "Modi, when explaining Congress Mukt Bharat had himself given hints to those of us who are trying to understand why this situation has arisen in 2018, a year before general elections. In one of his speeches last year, Modi had mentioned that his slogan of 'Congress-free India' was not about ‘eliminating the main opposition party politically but about ridding the country of the "Congress culture" which he termed as casteist, dynastic, corrupt and no respect for democratic institutions’. In its penultimate year, Modi Government is battling Congress ecosystem which is not necessarily only Congress Party but entire ecosystem that benefits from Congress culture prevailing." 2*"Narendra Modi’s personal popularity remains high. The economy is finally showing signs of recovery. Impact of Demonetization and major structural reform like GST has been absorbed. Infrastructure projects are being planned and completed in record time and India has retained its mantle of fastest growing major economy in the world. India has managed to avert any major terror attack on its soil. Left wing Maoist terror that gripped the country not too long ago is waning. Corruption in top echelons of the government has disappeared, scams and kickbacks are a thing of past." 3*"Foreign policy has finally become India centric and India is punching above its weight in global governance institutions. Gone are the days when India merely reacted. Today India is leading on the global stage with ideas like International Solar Alliance. Cementing India’s soft power further, International Yoga day is now celebrated with much gusto across the world. These are facts, but Narendra Modi’s future battles do not lie in the realm of facts. Modi is fighting a battle of perception and electoral arithmetic and that battle must be fought and won in a different arena."
Opinion
04/09/2018
1382.
Sub :-
1* "Modi, when explaining Congress Mukt Bharat had himself given hints to those of us who are trying to understand why this situation has arisen in 2018, a year before general elections. In one of his speeches last year, Modi had mentioned that his slogan of 'Congress-free India' was not about ‘eliminating the main opposition party politically but about ridding the country of the "Congress culture" which he termed as casteist, dynastic, corrupt and no respect for democratic institutions’. In its penultimate year, Modi Government is battling Congress ecosystem which is not necessarily only Congress Party but entire ecosystem that benefits from Congress culture prevailing."
2*"Narendra Modi’s personal popularity remains high. The economy is finally showing signs of recovery. Impact of Demonetization and major structural reform like GST has been absorbed. Infrastructure projects are being planned and completed in record time and India has retained its mantle of fastest growing major economy in the world. India has managed to avert any major terror attack on its soil. Left wing Maoist terror that gripped the country not too long ago is waning. Corruption in top echelons of the government has disappeared, scams and kickbacks are a thing of past."
3*"Foreign policy has finally become India centric and India is punching above its weight in global governance institutions. Gone are the days when India merely reacted. Today India is leading on the global stage with ideas like International Solar Alliance. Cementing India’s soft power further, International Yoga day is now celebrated with much gusto across the world. These are facts, but Narendra Modi’s future battles do not lie in the realm of facts. Modi is fighting a battle of perception and electoral arithmetic and that battle must be fought and won in a different arena."
Ref :-
The Arithmetic of 2019 suggests that every Anti Modi vote is a vote for Congress Ecosystem : Jun 05, 2018 Sunanda Vashisht
In 2014, when Narendra Modi won the general elections with a historic mandate, his supporters and detractors both agreed on only one point. Modi is assured two terms and combined opposition might as well go take a walk till 2024. Opposition was in stupor, BJP was resurgent and Modi supporters thought Congress Mukt Bharat is just around the corner. After four years much water has flown under the bridge. In 2018 again, we have a situation where Modi supporters and his baiters agree on only one point-this time radically different from 2014. Second term for Narendra Modi government is certainly not a cakewalk and 2019 election will be a long, hard fought battle.
Combined opposition suddenly finds itself back in the game and whispers of ‘Narendra Modi is not invincible’ are being heard across the living rooms of Lutyens Delhi and opeds of newspapers. Few by-poll victories and Congress-JDS swooping in quickly to form a post poll alliance in Karnataka and keep BJP, the single largest party, out of power has only made these whispers louder.
Narendra Modi’s personal popularity remains high. The economy is finally showing signs of recovery. Impact of Demonetization and major structural reform like GST has been absorbed. Infrastructure projects are being planned and completed in record time and India has retained its mantle of fastest growing major economy in the world. India has managed to avert any major terror attack on its soil. Left wing Maoist terror that gripped the country not too long ago is waning. Corruption in top echelons of the government has disappeared, scams and kickbacks are a thing of past.
Foreign policy has finally become India centric and India is punching above its weight in global governance institutions. Gone are the days when India merely reacted. Today India is leading on the global stage with ideas like International Solar Alliance. Cementing India’s soft power further, International Yoga day is now celebrated with much gusto across the world. These are facts, but Narendra Modi’s future battles do not lie in the realm of facts. Modi is fighting a battle of perception and electoral arithmetic and that battle must be fought and won in a different arena.
Modi’s tenure has never been without manufactured controversy. From orchestrated Award Wapsi campaigns to fake church attacks, opposition has been trying to sully Modi’s governance record. But none of the accusations stuck or no one really cared because Modi was winning all electoral battles that came his way. Then came Gujarat elections. BJP fighting years of incumbency was up against an uphill task. Gujarat was also facing leadership crisis with Anandiben Patel stepping down before elections. Despite all this, BJP did win the majority but narrowly stopped short of magical 100 mark. Congress did not get wiped out and claimed ‘moral’ victory for stopping BJP at 99.
After this BJP managed to lose few bypolls in Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. Bypolls are typically fought on local issues and their results can never be extrapolated to the larger national context. But bypolls can be a good indicator of what may follow if necessary measures are not undertaken.
*"First lesson is clear. Any non-BJP vote is now a Congress ecosystem vote. So, if Karnataka votes out Congress, yet in the fractured mandate Congress will align with other parties to become a legitimate force to challenge BJP."
*"Second lesson is what no commentator had guessed will happen. Two arch rivals like SP and BSP getting together to face a common enemy. None of us would have believed Mayawati will join hands with SP but faced with existential crisis she has been seen sharing stage with Akhilesh Yadav in many places. I wouldn’t be surprised as BJP climbs slowly to become largest opposition party in West Bengal that Mamata might join forces with her erstwhile enemy CPIM."
Kairana was a brilliant example of how Opposition will swallow their pride and put forth a combined front to defeat Modi. Tabasaaum Hasan who won Kairana is a SP candidate who fought on RLD ticket and Mayawati silently pitched in her support. Congress too wholehearted supported her. We will see many such instances where personal ambitions will take a back seat in the face of common enemy. Of course, there will be seat sharing issues and how much space each party is willing to concede. But at the moment till 2019 elections, many parties will join forces even if alliances are as unnatural as Congress- JDS alliance in Karnataka.
*"What can Modi do when faced with arithmetic of combined opposition? Exactly what he did in 2014. If he manages to persuade people to vote beyond identity issues, then no amount of Opposition unity can defeat him. In 2014 all incremental vote that BJP received beyond his core vote was of those who were willing to set aside their community and caste identity. When that happens no amount of permutations and combinations by opposition can defeat Modi."
Will Modi be able to inspire people of India to vote again for an idea that they must rise above narrow identity issues? It may not appear so right now, but a year is a long time in politics. Those who now enjoy 24/7 electricity and those who were able to replace chulhas with LPG gas cylinders may not find a voice in opeds of newspapers, but they have a vote and irrespective of what lazy Opedists write and hyper news anchors preach, they will vote for continued prosperity and dignity.
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NOTE :-
Mahagathbhandhan: Who will sacrifice seats to accommodate their partners? i.e. “Kurbani Dega Kaun”? : Aug 20, 2018 Mohal Joshi
The biggest Bollywood hit of 1993 was an action comedy movie called Aankhen. One of the memorable scenes from that movie was between veteran actors Kader Khan and Sadashiv Amrapurkar both of whom were trying to court the actress Bindu. The tension over this rivalry boils over at a party when both of whom are drunk. Both ask the other one to make a ‘sacrifice’ i.e. give up on their love for Bindu so that the other one can have her. This exchange between both of them was made famous by the dialogue “Kurbani Dega Kaun”? Translation: Who will make the sacrifice?
BJP under Narendra Modi and Amit Shah over the past 5 years has steamrolled the opposition to be in power in New Delhi plus 19 states all across India. The opposition to counter this hegemonic rise of the BJP has proposed to put aside their differences and come together in a joint alliance which is sometimes loosely referred to as the MahaGathBandhan (MGB). Today once can see in the media countless stories regarding this opposition unity. Over a dozen opposition leaders appeared together in a photo-op at the swearing in of H.D. Kumaraswamy in Bengaluru after the Karnataka assembly elections.
Congress and the other opposition regional parties are looking to unite their separate vote shares into a single bloc to provide a formidable challenge to the BJP and its allies. Many people including me have argued that there is more to it than the simple arithmetic of adding up everyone’s votes together. There remain challenges of vote transference as I have explained before and chemistry among the voter bases of the various opposition parties.
All this talk of joint opposition or MGB as some call it, leaves out what is surely going to be one of the most contentious issues of them all: Seat Sharing. When the opposition leaders get together to discuss seat sharing can they all check their egos at the door and work up a solution which is palatable to all? Who will sacrifice seats to accommodate their partners? i.e. “Kurbani Dega Kaun”?
Let’s take a look at UP (80 Lok Sabha seats) which will be the biggest test of this MGB/opposition unity and seat sharing. As per current reports the following four opposition parties plan to fight together in 2019: BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party), SP (Samajwadi Party), INC (Congress) and RLD (Rasthriya Lok Dal). Last time around in 2014, Congress and RLD had formed a pre poll alliance while SP and BSP fought the elections alone. The number of candidates fielded by the four parties were as follows BSP: 80, SP: 78, INC: 67 and RLD: 9 = 234 in total. Next year assuming seat sharing details are worked out tickets can only be offered to 80 candidates across the four parties. Which means that 2/3 of all potential candidates among the four parties will be left on the sidelines. This is bound to create a vast number of upset party workers who are looking to contest elections to grab a slice of power. Many a time such disgruntled party members are placated by the party by offering positions as chairman or directors in local bodies or state run corporations. With the opposition being out of power across majority of India many of these options are simply not available to them at this time. The potential candidates and their followers who were passed over could end pouting and not campaigning thus hurting the opposition’s chances. These unhappy campers are ripe target for Amit Shah and the BJP to damage the opposition in more than one way. Some of them can be ‘imported’ into BJP if right candidate couldn’t be found from within the BJP for a particular constituency. These dissidents could alternatively be fielded as Independent candidates to split the opposition vote i.e. ‘vote cutters’.
Talking about sacrifices even the Congress party will have to give up on contesting a whole host of seats to accommodate its partners. In a fantastic piece political commentator Amitabh Tiwari forecasts that Congress will only get to contest 319 seats nationwide. This will be a huge 30% reduction from last time around when they contested 464 seats. This 30% transfer of seats will be sort of a “dowry payment” to “seal the marriage” with the other opposition parties. This nevertheless will pose a dilemma for Congress. Amitabh in his piece mentions that from 1996 to 2009 Congress has won an average of 33% of all seats that it has contested. The high water mark was 2009 when it won 47% (206/440) of all seats contested. After a disastrous 2014 election let’s say Congress bounces back to the mean from 1996 to 2009 elections. This would be no mean feat given the state of the Congress party and its organization today. Winning 33% of seats in 2019 out of 319 would give them 106 seats which would be a significant uptick from 44 in 2014. But this leaves them at a disadvantage vs the regional parties in any possible government formation as the regional parties would have at least 170+ MP’s. This will dash Rahul Gandhi’s dream of becoming PM in 2019. If there is a massive anti BJP wave and they repeat their 47% strike rate from their best ever performance in 2009 they would still only get 149 seats. This would still not put them close to a number where they can call all the shots in new coalition government (similar to 2009 where they won 206 seats & controlled the working of the UPA-II coalition government)
Many of the regional players in this MGB at the state level have either been driven out of power by the BJP or are under threat of being displaced by the BJP in the future. All of them believe that BJP is not returning to power in 2019 & they foresee an opposition coalition government. There is bound to be a big tussle for the post of PM and cushy cabinet portfolios. To maximize their leverage in such negotiations over other partners of the coalition government it is imperative for them to want to contest and win the maximum number of seats. They also know that if Congress wins too many seats let’s say 150+ then Congress could dictate terms to the regional outfits (similar to 2009). Conversely if the Congress number is kept down the regional parties can form a Third Front government with outside support from Congress (similar to 1996) thus keeping the majority of the spoils of power among the regional players.
So too keep the Congress number down and keep their individual number as high as possible (for maximum leverage in the new government) regional parties will drive hard bargains to further squeeze the Congress for more seats. A good example is the upcoming assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Congress lost the 2013 assembly election in MP by 8.6% margin to the BJP. BSP has some presence in areas of MP adjoining to Uttar Pradesh. Congress wants to pick up the BSP’s 6.4% vote share as this could help significantly to close the gap with the BJP. As per my calculations there were around 35/200 seats in MP where the BSP+INC votes > BJP votes in 2013. Congress is open to offering 30 seats to BSP which would be in line with that number. However Mayawati has reportedly demanded 50 seats in MP and also wants similar seat sharing arrangements in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. She has said Congress has to ally in all 3 states and can’t pick and choose where to ally i.e. “all or nothing deal”. She has said that right now any news of tie-up with the Congress party is mere speculation and that they will be not in an alliance if they are not offered a “respectable number of seats”. Chhattisgarh where elections are won by razor thin margins (0.7% by BJP in 2013) the local Congress leaders are open to a seat sharing deal with the BSP. However in Rajasthan which is more of a bipolar state (BJP vs INC) the local unit of Congress doesn’t want to give up any seats due to BSP’s minimal presence in Rajasthan plus they believe that they will be able to defeat BJP singlehandedly. So there is difference of opinion inside Congress on whether to tie with BSP for the three state polls or not. Mayawati has threatened to fight alone if not given enough seats in all states. She has for now put the ball in Congress’s court as to whether they accede to her demands for the tie-up up in all three states or not. Congress could relent and accommodate BSP in all three states but that could pose problems down the road in 2019. Recently BSP has reportedly asked for 39 seats from Congress (excluding UP) to contest as part of seat sharing deal with Congress for 2019. Similar to this other regional players across the country might want to extract their ‘pound of flesh’ from the Congress as part of their seat sharing deals with the Congress party. This would mean that the number of seats that Congress party actually contests would keep constantly decreasing.
OPINION :-
Conclusion:
For any alliance seat sharing is always a prickly issue. Even NDA has its own set of seat sharing issues where Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and Janata Dal (United) in Bihar are pushing BJP to allocate it greater number of seats. But the number of parties and states where this tricky balancing act will have to be performed on the opposition side is on a much wider scale. This means that seat sharing is prone to being more problematic on the MGB vs NDA side. Most states will see the opposition trying to convert the multipolar contests from a 3 way (or 4 way in case of UP) to a direct head to head contest vs the NDA. This means that anywhere from 50 to 67% of prospective opposition candidates being politely asked to not contest. This huge number of opposition party workers not contesting would be a highly fertile ground for the BJP. BJP could use them to replace unpopular incumbent MP’s facing heavy anti-incumbency or instead field rebel candidates to damage the opposition’s chances of winning by splitting their votes. Congress has a unique sort of dilemma where on one hand prior to the election they don’t want to whittle down their number of contested seats so much that even if BJP loses they don’t end up with no real power in the new government. On the other hand if they can’t agree on seat sharing & contest alone they would face another 5 years in the opposition. The regional parties many of whom have being swept out of power at the state level need to do well in 2019 to keep their base intact with a taste of power in New Delhi. Another loss means they risk becoming irrelevant both nationally and more importantly in their respective states. In this game of showdown between the regional players and the Congress who will give up their claim to contesting the common seats in question. Who will sacrifice their seats for the other: “Kurban Dega Kaun”.This battle (among the opposition) within the battle (vs the BJP) will be fascinating to watch over the next few months in the run up to the 2019 Lok Sabha election.
***
JAIHIND
VANDEMATHARAM
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