China’s “String of Pearls”: 1. The encirclement of India & how to break the chakravyuh? : Aashish : Strategic Frontier Research Foundation
Opinion
23/11/2018
1561.
SUB : China’s “String of Pearls”: 1. The encirclement of India & how to break the chakravyuh? : Aashish : Strategic Frontier Research Foundation
December 23, 2017
*Image 1 of 5 The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi laying the foundation stones of City Gas Distribution Projects in 65 Geographical Areas covering 129 districts under 9th CGD Bidding Round, in New Delhi on November 22, 2018.
Preface :
The world is seeing the rise of a new world order with economic interdependence and cooperation amongst different nations at a level unmatched at any other instance in history. The changing dynamics have not left the Asian Continent untouched, with new, increasingly complex and multilateral relations being formed between the nations every day. The last two decades have seen the spectacular rise of China as an economic powerhouse and, in a post-Cold War world, the emergence of a new geopolitical climate.
China’s engagement with all of the neighbouring countries with respect to power projections and foreign policy is well known. Be it in the form of hostilities for pending unresolved ‘issues’, state-sponsored and private economic investments, indirect proxy wars and trying to install governments which are under her direct/indirect control.
Over the last decade, there has been a marked increase in these activities and trying to wrest control over specific nations which China has identified as strategically important. These countries overtly represent the trade routes, oil supply and sea lines of communication but covertly also enable viable replenishment and supply base for her Military especially for the PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy [1]). Through the direct and indirect investment of money, power, politics and military aid, China has created an astonishingly beautiful encirclement of India at various levels.
This analysis is meant to understand this encirclement (chakravyuh) and how India can fight this out. The views and opinion in this analysis are based on open sources and connecting the dots to build and analyse. Qualitatively looking at the chief issues and possible solutions let us to firmly believe that all is not lost in this big geopolitical game. The whole encirclement can be broken and restricted to what can be either a mutual benefit to India or to a position which will not threaten India over coming decades.
Chapter 1
Introduction :
China has been making direct and indirect investments in Asia and African region from the early 2000s. However, in last 5 years, there has been marked an increase in its initiatives to make all these outward reaches into strategic geopolitical tools. The chief tool is shown in the picture below
OBOR has been represented as an economic tool [3]. It has been defined in many circles as the blueprint connecting over 60 countries accounting for 60% of the world’s population. Its collective GDP equivalent is approximated to be over one-third of the world’s wealth. The economic corridors OBOR proposes are as under
1. New Eurasian Land Bridge
2. China – Mongolia – Russia Corridor
3. China – Central Asia – West Asia Corridor
4. China – Indochina Peninsula Corridor
5. China – Pakistan Corridor
6. Bangladesh – China – India – Myanmar Corridor
These economic corridors effectively constitute the framework of the OBOR initiative beyond China’s borders
The location and structure of the corridors are shown in the map below, which also outlines the route of 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.
Owing to Indian reservations and non-commitment, the whole initiative has not been fully successful. But the foundation of this whole initiative as a concept and realisation has progressed with multiple overt and covert investments in various domains.
The extent of Chinese investments has been well documented and in various fields especially infrastructure. The Figure below depicts such forecasted investments in our area of interest over next 5 years. Strikingly Beijing has been pushing its soft power status as much as possible opening up new routes of communication, access to markets and also enabling power play into the domestic political setup in most of these places.
With the above figure, the adjoining commentary [4] stated
In 14th May 2017, this year, Mr Xi pledged an additional $124 billion towards his $900 billion “Belt and Road” initiative, a global trade and infrastructure drive that he is promoting as a long-term “win-win” campaign for the 65 nations that have signed up to it. Most western leaders stayed away from a two-day summit highlighting Chinese ambition to secure greater influence, but the 28 heads of state present at what Mr Xi called “a gathering of great minds” included President Putin of Russia and President Erdogan of Turkey.
If the OBOR was just the threat owing to economic aid and strengthening China’s position by accessing more markets at reduced cost and secured lines, few analysts went ahead and declared another stratagem called String of Pearls [5]
In an article in The Washington Times dated January 17, 2005 [6], it was disclosed that
“China is building strategic relationships along the sea lanes from the Middle East to the South China Sea in ways that suggest defensive and offensive positioning to protect China’s energy interests, but also to serve broad security objectives,” said the report sponsored by the director, Net Assessment, who heads Mr. Rumsfeld’s office on future-oriented strategies.
In spite of this disclosure, officially China never uses this terminology but its recent spate of actions indicate this stratagem being used from the South China Sea to Djibouti and in between CPEC project and Gwadar development, Hambantota development in Sri Lanka, Port construction in Myanmar, Container facility in Bangladesh and even overtures to open a path to Nepal. The map below gives an accurate idea of this aspect
The “string of pearls” concept is often viewed a military initiative, with the aim of providing China’s navy access to a series of ports stretching from the South China Sea to the Arabian Sea. This has caused some consternation, particularly in India, which sees itself as being encircled. [7]
On July 12, 2017, when Chinese troops started moving into Djibouti for deployment into the 1st overseas base, this encirclement more or less became prominent. China’s Military and assets being deployed to secure their strategic investments causes a big headache for India from Political, Economic, Military and strategic perspectives. The game is set for a great rivalry between India and China with China already making the first move and entwining India into this chakravyuh. How India responds and what will be the best course of action going forward, this paper will analyse it in subsequent chapters.
To be continued
NOTE :-
PM lays foundation stone to mark the commencement of work for 9th round of City Gas Distribution
22 Nov, 2018
The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi, today, laid the foundation stone through video conferencing, to mark the commencement of work for City Gas Distribution(CGD), awarded under the 9th CGD bidding round, at Vigyan Bhawan, New Delhi. He also launched the 10th CGD bidding round.
Addressing the gathering, Prime Minister said that the work for setting up City Gas Distribution network has started in 129 districts, under the 9th round of CGD bidding. He added that after the 10th round of bidding of CGD, more than 400 districts would be covered under the City Gas Distribution network, covering around seventy percent of the population.
Stressing that the nation is now moving towards Gas Based Economy, Prime Minister said the Union Government is paying attention towards all dimensions of Gas Based Economy. Shri Modi pointed out the various steps taken by the Union Government to strengthen the Gas infrastructure in the country,especially increasing the number of LNG terminals, creating nation-wide Gas Grid and creation of City Gas Distribution Network.
Explaining the role of Gas Based Economy in moving towards Clean Energy, Prime Minister said that CGD network will play a major role in achieving Clean Energy solutions. He further added that the Union Government’s efforts towards Clean Energy are broad based. In this context, he mentioned various Clean Energy initiatives of the Union Government like Ethanol Blending, Compressed Bio Gas plants, increased LPG coverage and introduction of BS-6 fuels for automobiles.
The Prime Minister said that more than twelve crore LPG connections were provided in the last four years. He mentioned that Gas networks in cities create a new ecosystem, one that enables gas based industries, generates employment to youth and provides ease of living to citizens.
The Prime Minister said that the Government would strive to fulfil the targetsfor Clean Energy and Gas Based Economy.He added that such targets need to be fulfilled not just for ourselves, but for the whole of humanity and the future generations.
***
Next
Chapter 2
The String of Pearls
https://youtu.be/HVoPn83g5Kw
JAIHIND
VANDE MATARAM
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