Rahul Gandhi said the "fiscal repercussions of the scheme have been analysed" but did not make clear if the income guarantee scheme would subsume any existing subsidies. And, if yes, which ones and by how much. For, analysts said that income-support schemes of this type cannot coexist with subsidies on account of the resultant fiscal burden. On a standalone basis, the proposed scheme, for 5 crore households, will add 1.9 per cent of GDP to the fiscal deficit and the projected outlay could be higher than India's health budget estimated at about 1.4 per cent of GDP. 2. Recalling the Congress’s past promises including on loan waiver and MGNREGA, Jaitley said: “The latest announcement of the Congress party if tested on simple arithmetic then Rs 72,000 is less than two third of the existing DBT under Modi government, which averages Rs 1.068 lakh annually. So what is being claimed by the Congress party — A bluff announcement,” he said. 3. “After 60 years, the country is heading in the right direction. Our policy is clear, our dedication is unmatched and our intentions cannot be questioned. Don’t give another chance to the Congress, which has only created difficulties for the country,” Mr. Modi said.

OPINION

28/03/2019

1742.

SUB :

1. Rahul Gandhi said the "fiscal repercussions of the scheme have been analysed" but did not make clear if the income guarantee scheme would subsume any existing subsidies. And, if yes, which ones and by how much. For, analysts said that income-support schemes of this type cannot coexist with subsidies on account of the resultant fiscal burden. On a standalone basis, the proposed scheme, for 5 crore households, will add 1.9 per cent of GDP to the fiscal deficit and the projected outlay could be higher than India's health budget estimated at about 1.4 per cent of GDP.

2. Recalling the Congress’s past promises including on loan waiver and MGNREGA, Jaitley said: “The latest announcement of the Congress party if tested on simple arithmetic then Rs 72,000 is less than two third of the existing DBT under Modi government, which averages Rs 1.068 lakh annually. So what is being claimed by the Congress party — A bluff announcement,” he said.

3. “After 60 years, the country is heading in the right direction. Our policy is clear, our dedication is unmatched and our intentions cannot be questioned. Don’t give another chance to the Congress, which has only created difficulties for the country,” Mr. Modi said.

Ref : Few details, Rs 3.6 lakh crore-question: Will Rahul Gandhi’s minimum income scheme be a top-up or subsidy tweak? : 26/03/2019 : The Indian Express

*In the Economic Survey for 2016-17, then Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian had proposed a Universal Basic Income (UBI) of Rs 7,620 per year.

When Congress president Rahul Gandhi announced that his party, if voted to power, would offer a minimum income of Rs 72,000 a year for the poorest 20 per cent families, he didn't spell out the details of the scheme called Nyunatam Aay Yojana (Nyay). That's where the devil lies.

Gandhi said the "fiscal repercussions of the scheme have been analysed" but did not make clear if the income guarantee scheme would subsume any existing subsidies. And, if yes, which ones and by how much. For, analysts said that income-support schemes of this type cannot coexist with subsidies on account of the resultant fiscal burden. On a standalone basis, the proposed scheme, for 5 crore households, will add 1.9 per cent of GDP to the fiscal deficit and the projected outlay could be higher than India's health budget estimated at about 1.4 per cent of GDP.

According to the Central Statistics Office, there were 24.95 crore households in India in 2011. If every household in the bottom 20 per cent is eligible for this income, this translates into a total expenditure of about Rs 3.6 lakh crore annually - over six times the outlay of Rs 55,000 crore under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme in Budget 2019.

*Congress president Rahul Gandhi addresses a press conference, at AICC HQ, in New Delhi, Monday. Party Spokesperson Randeep Surjewala and party leader KC Venugopal are also seen. (PTI)

"Both income support scheme and subsidies cannot co-exist since it would create huge pressure on government's fiscal situation," Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist, India Ratings said. The Budget for FY'18 showed there were about 950 Central sector and Centrally sponsored sub-schemes in the country, accounting for about 5 per cent of GDP by allocation. The top 11 schemes accounted for about 50 per cent of the budgetary allocation – the food subsidy or Public Distribution System (PDS) being the largest, followed by urea subsidy and the NREGA. If states are included, the number of schemes would be even larger.

In the Economic Survey for 2016-17, then Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian had proposed a Universal Basic Income (UBI) of Rs 7,620 per year. As per the estimates in the Survey based on NSS 2011-12 consumption data, at a target poverty level of 0.45 per cent, the income needed to take a person above Rs 893 per month - the poverty line in 2011-12 – works out to Rs 5,400 per year, which when adjusted to inflation for 2016-17 yielded a UBI of Rs 7,620 per year. Assuming coverage with quasi-universality rate of 75 percent, the economy-wide cost of the UBI was estimated to be 4.9 per cent of GDP.

*Union Minister of Finance Arun Jaitley gestures as he addresses a press conference at the party headquarters in New Delhi. (PTI Photo)

The macro-economic impact of Nyay includes an impetus to growth on account of a boost to consumption expenditure, an inflationary impact on account of higher demand for goods and services and a higher cost of government borrowing that could lead to higher fiscal deficit if other subsidy schemes were to continue. The key differentiating factor between the existing structure of subsidies and what Gandhi has proposed will be identification of beneficiaries, which could pose a challenge.

As per calculations quoted by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in his Facebook post on Monday, a total of Rs 5.34 lakh crore is already being provided by the government as subsidies and transfers. Of this, Rs 1.8 lakh crore is the total payment from 55 ministries to bank accounts under different schemes, Rs 1.84 lakh crore is accounted for food subsidy, Rs 75,000 crore for fertilisers subsidy, along with Rs 75,000 crore for PM Kisan scheme and Rs 20,000 crore for Ayushman Bharat scheme.

Niti Aayog Vice-Chairman Rajiv Kumar said the Congress's promise will create strong incentives against work and hurt fiscal discipline. "True to its past record of promising the moon to win elections, Congress President announces a scheme that will burst fiscal discipline, create strong incentives against work and which will never be implemented," Kumar said in a tweet.

*LIZ MATHEW SENIOR EDITOR THE INDIAN EXPRESS WITH NITIN GADKARI

***

NOTE :

UBI: Bluff… Congress has history of swindling people in name of poverty alleviation, says Jaitley : 26/03/2019 : LIZ MATHEW : THE INDIAN EXPRESS

*LIZ MATHEW SENIOR EDITOR IHE INDIAN EXPRESS

Arun Jaitley called the promise an “eyewash” and said the Congress is in the habit of “giving promises” to the poor to win elections but has never provided resources for it.

Hours after Congress president Rahul Gandhi promised a minimum income scheme guaranteeing Rs 72,000 a year to the poor, Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley Monday criticised the announcement, saying the Congress has a “history of swindling people in name of poverty alleviation” while the Modi-led government has “already given the poor what Congress promises”.

“Today, the Congress president has announced that those whose income is below Rs 12,000 per month would be given a subsidy to ‘attain’ that income subject to Rs 6,000 per month. This announcement is an admission of the fact that neither Indiraji nor her son and certainly not the UPA government controlled by her descendants was able to remove poverty,” Jaitley wrote in a blog posted Monday afternoon.

Recalling the Congress’s past promises including on loan waiver and MGNREGA, Jaitley said: “The latest announcement of the Congress party if tested on simple arithmetic then Rs 72,000 is less than two third of the existing DBT under Modi government, which averages Rs 1.068 lakh annually. So what is being claimed by the Congress party — A bluff announcement,” he said.

At a press conference later at the BJP headquarters, Jaitley called the promise an “eyewash” and said the Congress is in the habit of “giving promises” to the poor to win elections but has never provided resources for it. “No political party has betrayed India for more than seven decades other than the Congress party. It gave to the people of India many slogans and very little resources to implement them,” he said.

Jaitley said during its rule, the UPA had “conferred a large number of ‘rights’ without resources to implement them”. He alleged the bank loan waiver it had announced in 2008 was Rs 70,000 crore — a one-time measure — but only Rs 52,000 crore was actually allocated, a significant part of which went to businessmen of New Delhi.

Criticising the economic policies of past Congress Prime Ministers, Jaitley said while Jawaharlal Nehru decided to regulate the economy when the world was moving fast, Indira Gandhi’s economic policy was “was not about increasing production and generating wealth, but only about redistribution of poverty”.

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NOTE : 2. Congress practises vote bank politics and divides people to rule, says Modi : Mohammed Iqbal : THE HINDU

*Mohammed Iqbal

“With great difficulty, the country has picked the right direction now after 60 years. Don’t give them another chance again,” he says.

Accusing the Congress of dividing the people on the grounds of caste, class, region and religion, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday said the party was indulging in appeasement and “vote-bank politics” and working with a “narrow vision” to serve the interests of a single family which it treated as its high command.

Mr. Modi said the vote-bank politics had even divided the bureaucracy, which tries to please the ruling party. “For 60 years, the Congress has adopted this model of governance, fomenting confrontation between different sections and promoting divisive tendencies in society. It has worked only for those communities which vote for it,” he said.

“After 60 years, the country is heading in the right direction. Our policy is clear, our dedication is unmatched and our intentions cannot be questioned. Don’t give another chance to the Congress, which has only created difficulties for the country,” Mr. Modi said.

‘Stooped low’ :

Mr. Modi said the Congress had stooped low by playing “dirty politics” on surgical strikes by the Army across the Line of Control two years ago. “They raised doubts about the brave act of our soldiers. They should be ashamed of indulging in such politics, when our youth are getting inspiration from surgical strikes on their [second] anniversary,” he said.

The Prime Minister said that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) does not have a habit of lying as it works on the mantra of 'Sarva Jan Hitay' and 'Sarva Jan Sukhay'.

"But the opposition is fond of doing vote bank politics, and those who do vote bank politics, they enjoy the issue of Hindu-Muslim, older-youth, forward backward, this caste and that caste and man and woman.

"Wherever they get the opportunity they try to divide the society," he said, adding that it was easy to divide but very hard to unite.

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OPINION : How NYAY, a half-baked, rushed idea, will actually harm Congress : GUNJA KAPOOR : DAILY O

If this is Rahul Gandhi's 'final assault' on poverty, what was 'Indira Lao, Garibi Hatao'?

*Analyst, amateur writer, love to play the God's advocate, Lucknowi, Geek in denial, Martinian, potential misanthrope

"It's election season — and political parties and leaders are bound to use all possible ways (trick or treat) to woo voters."

GUNJA KAPOOR

In a seeming bid to divert the electorate’s attention from high-profile Congressmen exiting the party and arrest the narrative from the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah juggernaut, Congress president Rahul Gandhi has decided to promise a bonanza for 20% of India’s poor through the Nyuntam Aay Yojana (NYAY). While Rahul Gandhi refused to reveal any further details about NYAY, he accepted that the scheme was still being worked out.

This urgent announcement of what I call a half-baked scheme tells us that this election season will be dominated by a different TRP, apart from Target Rating Point — it’s Timing, Responsiveness (to issues) and Personalities (TRP).

*Rahul Gandhi has not revealed the details — because there aren't any? (Photo: Reuters)

Crisis of credibility :

Indian politicians have a long-standing tradition of making grand promises right before elections. The common citizens initially used to believe in these promises and voted for leaders, based on manifestos and pre-election announcements.

However, when those promises were left unfulfilled for decades, the electorate started to incorporate a factor of credibility before handing over five years of their future anymore.

It was thus amusing when the Congress president repeatedly used the phrase ‘final assault on poverty’ to describe his election bonanza.

Here's why :

1. Indira Lao, Garibi Hatao : - In 1971, Indira Gandhi asked India to vote for her if they wanted to get rid of poverty. Unfortunately, as per the World Bank, in 2012, one in five Indians continued to live in abject poverty. ‘Indira Lao, Garibi Hatao’ has clearly remained a mere slogan.

2. Nationalisation of banks :- spearheaded by Indira Gandhi was also believed to be yet another ‘assault on poverty’ — in hindsight, it was just another attempt to retain power. Less than 50% of Indians had bank accounts in 2014.

3. OROP : - In its 2004 manifesto, the Congress had promised One Rank One Pension to our armed forces veterans. Unfortunately, it took their ideological opponent to get the ball rolling. In contrast to the meagre allocation of Rs 500 crore by the UPA for OROP in Budget 2014-15, the existing government has disbursed Rs 35,000 crore after the complete implementation of the scheme.

4. The Food Security Act :- was reportedly implemented in just 11 states until 2014. Post-2014, the NDA implemented the UPA’s flagship programme across all states and Union Territories of India.

5. Loan waiver announcement : - Unfortunately, the loan waiver announced in 2003 did little to prevent farmers from falling into the grim trap of debt in the future. Its inability to provide any solutions explains that the announcement is just political motivation sans farmer welfare.

In the last few state elections — including Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh — the Congress performed better at the hustings, but, in reality, there is a crisis of credibility on the ground and a history of reneging on election promises. While farm loan waivers in Karnataka continue to be work in progress, most promises made in the party’s ‘vachan patra', including Rs 10,000 as unemployment allowance for one young member per family for a period of three years, are yet to kick off.

Corruption :

We have seen in the past how the poor (who are the target beneficiaries of the proposed scheme) have been manipulated by local officials.

Rahul Gandhi’s NYAY, to my mind, will only reignite the corruption nexus between beneficiary and bureaucrats. Reams of paperwork will be required for enrolment — a dangerous exercise — which will eventually have the potential to take the form of a full-fledged industry complete with bribes and commissions.

I am afraid beneficiaries in the informal sector may be potent targets of the extortion mafia — for example, a domestic worker earns Rs 7,000 a month. She is eligible for an additional Rs 5,000. The local officer may force her to declare her monthly income as Rs 6,000. Subsequently, the additional Rs 1,000 will actually be channelised as ‘commission’. The ability of this scheme to institutionalise corruption simply cannot be under-emphasised.

Rajiv Gandhi’s admission — of every one rupee released by the Centre, only 15 paise manages to reach the beneficiaries — was ‘audacious’, I think, primarily because he chose to do nothing about it. His reluctance to implement administrative reforms also cost him Bofors.

India grew at a foot-dragging pace of 3.5% annually under Indira Gandhi.

With income tax rates at the top level to the tune of 98.75%, providing little incentive for businesses to expand, the nation moved on the back of a black economy, tax evasion and corruption.

*Reaping the same bitter harvest: We all know what happened when the Congress announced farm loan waivers. (Photo: PTI)

Freebies versus : Subsidies :-

1. Last-mile delivery of subsidies has been an enduring challenge. Unlike the previous regime that apparently believed corruption was a ‘necessary evil’ to keep politics afloat, the Narendra Modi-led NDA has used technology and financial inclusion to deal with the perennial leakage of subsidies.

2. Implementation of JAM (Jan Dhan-Aadhaar-Mobile) trinity helped the direct transfer of subsidy amount to the bank account of the beneficiaries. As I write, cumulative benefits worth Rs 6.5 lakh crore have been transferred across 440 schemes that pertain to 55 ministries through DBT.

3. Moreover, contrary to the loss in transition phenomenon, DBT has reportedly resulted in savings of Rs 1.2 lakh crore. This is clearly more than the amount expected to be disbursed through NYAY.

4. The PM Kisan Samman Nidhi Yojana provides small and marginal farmers with an annual transfer of Rs 6,000 in three instalments for the purpose of procurement of raw material.

5. Similarly, the Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana (PM M V Y) provides compensation of Rs 5,000 for wage loss to women post the delivery of their first living child — once again, the purpose, time period and target beneficiary is outlined on a criterion other than just family income.

NYAY, on the contrary, proposes an unconditional transfer of money based on family income. This may lead to a shortage of low-cost labour.

In the past five years, the Indian poor have seen concerted efforts and political will to improve the quality of their life through affordable healthcare (Ayushman Bharat), access to credit (MUDRA), women-led development (Ujjwala), rural electrification and youth empowerment through skill development and Atal Tinkering Labs.

THIS DYNASTY PARTNER WOOING HINDUS WHILE THEY HATE EVER FROM NEHRU TILL TODAY

It is unclear how the nation will be able to afford these social security nets — if and ever NYAY were to be implemented.

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LAST WORD :

1. CONGRESS AND OPPOSITION : NO AIM, NO PATH, NO DIRECTION, NO VISION, BUT KNOW ONE THING, THAT IS JUST ABUSE BJP, ABUSE MODI JI, ABUSE WHATEVER GOOD THING FROM THE GOVERNMENT;

2. JUST PLAY OPPOSING TO EVERY MOVE, EACH WORD, AND NO IDEA OF THEIR OWN;

3. WHEN NATION PM ANNOUNCE THE ACHIEVEMENT OF OUR SCIENTISTS FOR THE BENEFIT OF NATION, SAY WHY PM? WHY NOT THE SCIENTISTS ANNOUNCE!;

4. THESE BASTARDS FORGOT THAT THE CAPTAIN REPRESENTS THE TEAM, HE SPEAK, NOT PLAYER- S.

5. THE DYNASTY NEVER SPOKE TO NATION EVER, BUT THIS PM IS DIFFERENT, YOU KNOW WHEN PM TWEET CAME OUT ON HIS LIVE CONTACT WITH THE PEOPLE IN ALL MEDIA BETWEEN 11.45 TO 12 NOON, IT WAS VIRAL BY 1000 SHARE IN A MINUTE, PEOPLE LOVE HIM, RESPECT HIM, KEPT HOPE /FAITH IN HIM THAN ANY POLITICAL NATAS IN THIS HOLY NATION BHARATHAM.