China’s “String of Pearls” : 5. The encirclement of India & how to break the chakravyuh? : Aashish : Strategic Frontier Research Foundation

Opinion
       27/11/2018
                1572.



SUB : China’s “String of Pearls” : 5. The encirclement of India & how to break the chakravyuh? : Aashish : Strategic Frontier Research Foundation

REF : Chapter - 5 : Remedial Measures to break the Chakravyuh :

I. The remedial measures to break the chakravyuh is basically two prong :

1. Economic and diplomatic Initiatives

2. Security Initiatives

1. Economic and Diplomatic initiatives :

* There have been 3 major points under this initiative -

i.  India has long been the dominant power in South Asia :

ii.  As Beijing invests millions in the region, New Delhi is looking to defend its sphere of influence

iii. India must play to its strengths instead of attempting to match Chinese capital;

"It is important to understand that China has an economic might, a banking industry to back its strategically important projects and financial capital for high-risk projects. To offset this, following solutions may be explored."




1. Indian agrarian economy and food security can aspects can be replicated to ensure adequate self-sufficiency can be created or a group can be created to look after that for all members. Monsoon plays a pivotal role as well and hence an integrated weather forecast and management will greatly aid all supporting nations.

2. From manufacturing aspects, India should look at creating a major global manufacturing hub in India and allow a part of the supply chain of less complex work involving the low end of technology matrix but highly manpower intensive to be in the supporting nation. In a way instead of a single industrial complex, India should try to create a hub in the homeland and spoke based industrial reach in multiple support nations. With the dependency of trade and manpower being employed, this creates a much better scope of cooperation without straining Indian monetary aspect too much.

3. This can be further enhanced by a collective nation signing a free trade agreement among themselves which will help boost economic cooperation

4. To boost connecting the east to west corridors, there should be an accelerated creation of a tax-free zone in A&N islands. The aim is to create a gateway region replicating Mauritius – gateway to Africa, Singapore – gateway to Southeast Asia, Dubai – gateway to ME perspective. A&N can become the gateway to India and its associated nation group thereby making it a very attractive economic proposition. A Free Trade Zone and Free Economic Zone with full exemptions/concessions to the investor would attract a large amount of foreign capital flow, boost exports and in turn boost precious foreign exchange improving our overall financial health further. This coupled with skilled job creation will help us use our young population adequately.

5. Opening up interbank cooperation with the extent of allowing Domestic Systemically Important Banks (D-SIB) to open up branches with full services in support nations. Now the idea is to allow support nation credit requirements to be availed via these D-SIBs. Since the industry may be a spoke to Indian hub, access to credit should not be a big issue with recourse via payments routed through these D-SIBs. On top, such industries in foreign support nations should be given either a priority status or an interest subvention scheme in order to facilitate further growth in aiding many industries. Indian Rupee acceptance and Indian Rupee structured loans will make this proposition even more attractive. Indian Rupee may be identified as a common currency yet keep domestic currencies as well. This will free the forex fluctuation effects and help the economies of all further.

6. India should champion the cause of renewable energy and should use Solar Energy and low-cost solar cells as an effective tool to help supporting nations ease through the energy crisis. India’s brainchild International Solar Alliance should be used to good effect to push this noble cause. Striving for a greener planet will help create a better image of responsible India and allowing support nation to accessing affordable Solar tech will enhance India’s economic and technological might.

7. In terms of the population, India and the supporting group in IOR will house a huge number of population of different age groups. The standard of living will be a big challenge and basic amenities, nutrition and sanitation should be the key challenge. Right to education and responsibility to provide a quality life and alleviate poverty will be welcome steps in that direction.

8. India should also look at allowing companies in the telecom industry to aid in providing low-cost communication access and broadband. In this Reliance-Jio with its Voice over LTE technology will be in the forefront by establishing network infrastructure and providing like India ultra cheap call rates and data packs.

9. India should also harvest its Medical tourism industry by tying up medical aid and ease in visa procedures. The supporting nations may be given Visa on Arrival and also expedited clearance for medical reasons to support this further up.Subsidised Airfares to and fro can also be envisioned for patient and dependent. The D-SIBs can be further supported by Medical insurers which can cover all such potential people and help them settle the medical bills via such Insurances. An AIIMS institute and education college can also be opened up in each supporting nation with full capex and opex cost to be borne by India. The training imparted can help build a generation of future medical professionals in this field.

10. Collaboration and the opening of quality institutes like IIT, IIM and IISc in supporting nations in order to impart quality education. Such campuses will help in strengthening the education system overall of the whole region overall and will provide similar skill sets to youth for working in industries. This will further cause the soft power increase for India

11. Usage of Culture, sports, movies, film and music to create a bonhomie and united aspect of all countries together. These are important mediums to share and impart information to all.

12. Creation of a one media entity for print, audio and video media for all type of news dissemination. Like vernacular editions, such a media house will help reach every corner of the supporting nation and let news reach and shared among all.

13. A common APP tool for all aspects of payments to all important notifications. Aadhar and biometric database creation can be done for all support countries to allow easier access and transaction of various services.  This coupled with APP can help in creating a digital economy in a big way

2. Security Initiatives :

i. India must spend on a rapid modernisation plan with the focus on two and half front war aspect. This will mean India need a considerable investment. The extra half front is being kept for emergency purposes when supporting nations may be needing our help or one of the nations can be entangled in Chi-Pak mix and open a new front against India as well. The modernisation must be tangible in the timeframe, use a mix of indigenous public and private sector and also suitably make maximum assets under a make in India campaign. Since the war theatres are multi-dimensional, the formation of a joint command with the appointment of Chief of Defence services and smooth transition into a network-centric battlefield is essential. India should also formally recognise and appoint important resources in Cyberwarfare and invest heavily to protect its military installations and the dual-use ones as well.

ii. India must showcase its power by covertly planning and disposing of the present Maldives government. maldives is an important piece of this jigsaw puzzle and we must act now in order to salvage what is an extremely precarious situation. We can take the aid of multiple world power like the backing of USA and usage of the agency like CIA for this joint ops as well.

iii. India should try and get closer to ME countries like Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar etc. In these places, we should try to have a strong relationship to the extent of covertly and overtly supporting a more favourable regime to India.This is important from the perspective of Energy like OIL and sovereign fund investments to aid our development. In return, we can look at installing satellite tracking and receiver station, a specific ME satellite and letting them access GAGAN GPS system.

iv. Build a full-fledged Naval (with air wing) and Army base (Converting Southern Command into an Amphibious command) in Seychelles  for neutralising Djibouti completely. Important to have a space-based asset constellation overlooking it 24×7. Need also to deploy unmanned maritime patrol aircrafts. In future, if we have a considerable number of aircraft carriers (as a result of point 1), we should look at permanently placing a CBG base in Seychelles.

v. Signing a contract with France, to allow Indian ships to deploy in Reunion Island. This will create a further a further base zone till Seychelles based comes online. By putting considerable security apparatus there and letting France in turn access to Seychelles base, we create a better power projection and security enhancer for the region.

vi. Raising a Brahmos AShM regiment and placing in A&N in order to secure the whole region completely. The militarization of A&N command should be further augmented with specific amphibious assets along with naval and Airpower placement. Assets like LHDs, NMRH helicopters, ASW ships, ISR assets need permanent housing and deployment to ensure the entry to IOR is properly kept in check all the time 24×7.

vii. Owing to a small but significant stake in Hambantota port (where Sri Lanka government ahs 30%) and ensuring all decision making is transparent. By appointing our own person there for the stake and our eyes on the ground, we can ensure there is no chance of any security lapse and full compliance of that project is for civilian purposes only.

viii. Upgrading Indian Oman relationship from naval berthing rights and anti-piracy operations to full scope of military deployment. With the need of border fencing from Yemen side and listening post already there, this relationship upgrade will help us deploy troops more easily. Such a position will help us checkmate Gwadar and CPEC permanently.

ix. Concretising India Singapore relationship into a military pact. As of now its a logistic sharing pact signed last month under India-Singapore Bilateral Agreement for Navy Cooperation. We have also the Air Force Bilateral Agreement in place from 2007 and renewed on the sidelines of the 11th Singapore-India Defense Policy Dialogue in January this year, while the Army Bilateral Agreement was also already in place in 2008 and is expected to be renewed next year. Indian Navy’s greater access to Changi Naval base and possible deployment of assets would greatly enhance our security perspective. The placement of the Singapore and proximity to SCS implies the Chinese assets has to pass this point which enables us also to counteract and protect our interests.

x. Over time we should explore on Lostical sharing agreement followed by a military pact and a base access in Vietnam, Philippines, South Korea and Japan. Each of these points represents a further strengthening and encirclement of India’s interest in protecting its shipping and trade lines.

3. Conclusion :

i. With this, it should be also noted that many of the solutions are not immediate in nature and may require at least 2-3 decades to fructify. what must be noted that this Chakravyuh can be broken with a mix of actionable on India’s part. What is paramountly needed is the resolute political decision-making ability at highest levels to change the status quo and often found slow reactive stance which has plagued us for multiple decades.

ii. The whole analysis had shown how China has employed the economic might coupled with dual-use infra creation for military aspects and how it has gone ahead to create the string of pearls. It was explained from an Indian maritime perspective as well followed by possible recommended solutions. The recommended solutions instead of sticking to either economic-diplomatic actionable or only security initiatives, rather a 360-degree view was attempted to showcase how both are also interdependent.

iii. As seen over the course of this paper, the analysis had thrown light to important geopolitical developments and had raised two important aspects. First is the identification of the Chakravyuh, which will need much more than mere words and saying that India will protect its geopolitical interests. The identification must be backed by solutions which are reviewed, amended based on the feedback of time, resource and situation to maintain relevance.

iv. India can surely break this chakravyuh and take China over its own game. At far less investment of time, money and resources. The relevant question next is when will India begin? To this small baby steps have been taken. It’s now time to act and take giant strides to protect all our geopolitical, economic, diplomatic and military interests.

THE END

JAIHIND
VANDE MATARAM