China’s “String of Pearls” : 4. The encirclement of India & how to break the chakravyuh? : Aashish : Strategic Frontier Research Foundation

Opinion
       26/11/2018
                1570.

SUB : China’s “String of Pearls” : 4. The encirclement of India & how to break the chakravyuh? : Aashish : Strategic Frontier Research Foundation

REF : Chapter - 4 : A maritime perspective to this chakravyuh

I. From a baseline perspective, we have seen the following based on previous chapters :-

1. Enhanced Economic outreaches

2. Focus on geopolitical trade

3. Securing Energy routes at any cost for all situations

4. Focussed on maritime aspect and SLOCs

5. Overt usage of economic-political willpower

6. Covert usage of economic-political-military aspects of decision making

It is clear that the economic prosperity scope is dependent on maritime nature of the whole mix of sea lanes of communication, strategic shipping/merchant lanes, secured trade routes to access newer markets at reduced logistical costs and protecting all via a dominant military back up to support its security.

It is pertinent to note that all this is primarily showcasing an increased need and thrust in maritime power projection and usage of naval assets to ensure safety, security, the order of sea lanes and force towards the dominance of power projection. A simple breakdown from different perspectives makes it easier to understand the interdependency

II. Political and Diplomacy Perspectivesm  :-

1. Building deeper relationship with nations in Asia and Africa

2. Recognising different nations for direct and indirect cohesion

3. Greater recognition in global arena

4. Recognition as a powerful nation in a multipolar world

5. Challenge the old leadership and dominance of World powers

III. Economic Perspectives :-

1. Infrastructure Buildup in the trade route in supporting nations

2. Investment in overt and covert form to have firm control

3. Identifying strategically good locations where income generation is limited but the project is made to show a huge cash flow generation in future for annexing.

4. Initiate the relationship with soft loans and changing the debt to commercial rate of interests

5. Commanding a greater sum of profit.

6. Management control over the whole invested and linking complex

IV. Focussing on Energy Security aspect :-

1. Focus on providing engineering and technology solutions for basic modes of transport infrastructure as a whole.

2. Using technology to infiltrate into the lives of common citizens and creating a dependency

3. The whole economy of the supporting nation indirectly depends on mainland China’s economic policies and overtures.

4. Controlling commodity at resource excavation/mining to transport to storage aspects.

V. Military Perspectives :-

1. Creation of military outposts across the IOR

2. Upgrading the intelligence gathering perspectives with reliance on Electronic, communication, satellite imagery-based intelligence and use of Space-based assets

3. Creation of berthing places for surface ships and pens for docking submarines without raising any suspicion

4. Stocking of supply, replenishments and weapon based assets

5. Military personnel training and rotation on different platforms for operational deployment

6. Neutralise any threat to China and its investment places

7. Linking up Military sales to local Chinese Military Industrial Complex via ways of soft loans, training and even support services creation

8. Establishment of local repair depots

9. Creation of Satellite Tracking and Imaging centre

10. Establishment of VLF Submarine communication setups

11. Access to Beidou GPS Systems

12. Establishing dual use communication medium, ground-based and space-based assets.

VI. Cultural  Perspectives :-

1. Promoting Chinese culture and Chinese way of life

2. Pushing significant expatriates into supporting nations in order to create a local population over time which is more China favouring and leaning in ideologies.

3. Soft power creation and projection

4. Enhancing Tourism connections

5. Increasing the citizen to citizen contact and exchange program

6. Enhancing education exchange program and scholarships to boost image among new generations

7. Taking over or buying controlling stakes or covertly manipulating local media and newspapers to follow mainland China news media viewpoints, in turn, making mainland China media a globally acceptable name.

8. Using ancient Chinese medicines and treatments for humanitarian assistance

9. Opening up Confucius institute in different nations. These institutes are affiliated with Ministry of Education

10. Use sports, movies, art, music, films to push Chinese perspectives.

11. The above perspectives provide a deep insight to understand the nuances of China’s actionable. If we consider now string of pearls and China’s possible encirclement of India, the whole picture looks like this below

Figure - 1. – The possible ships and submarine berthing places in China’s string of Pearls

It is important to understand that China in its quest for the string of Pearls had basically ensured that South China Sea stance of hers is shown as a template of power projection and determination.

In doing so, it has rubbed Vietnam hard and forced Vietnam to spend a considerable amount in Military wares and assets to safeguard its security.

Philippines which has been a pro-USA country and USA protection owing to a weak Navy succumbed to a plethora of economic deals signed over last 12 months. China won her by the means of economic deals softening her strict resistance to the SCS dispute and diluting the whole root cause further to her own benefit.

Malaysia is another commodity-based economy which has been struggling for some time. In Spite of assets which it has, most are aged and needs replacements. To safeguard its own strategic needs, Malaysia will be forced to spend money to buy out new military wares.

Taiwan is facing an impending situation of almost many missiles targeting Taiwan and simulations related to its annexation. It plans to increase investments in military wares and assets as well to safeguard its interests. Being a close ally of USA, the China vs USA confrontation is a starked reality

So all the parties in the SCS dispute had been dealt with in some ways and resultant action only showcases that taking on China alone may not be the best course of action overtly or covertly. If we look at figure 11, simple facts come to light based on previous chapters. To make things, even more, clearly let us look at another pictorial

Figure -2. -- Comparison of ports in IOR

Given above is the list of all ports which are shown on the map and also the disputes which India has with Chi-Pak axis

If we draw a parallel between the east side of the string of pearls resolution or SCS resolution within the future west side or IOR region outcome, few points become very clear.

China is creating a dual-use civilian infrastructure of commercial nature which can be used for the military purpose as well.

Wrt to an aggressive stance in SCS, the same aggression should be applicable when the right amount of manpower and assets under deployment and rotation are available.
The neighbouring countries especially India should be very cautious. As the time goes by, Threat index will see a marked upswing and there will be potential eye to eye confrontation in multiple exchange points

VII. The strategy in IOR is clearly following :-

1. Build-up

2. Consolidate access points

3. Create a direct competition with India

4. Use A2/AD or Anti Access /Area Denial in order to isolate India and ensure no external help can reach India

5. Propping up Pakistan based proxies covertly and overtly using its forces to keep India engaged all the time

6. Another distracting scenario will be created to ensure the friendly country to many of these nations and IORs greatest security provider – the USA is kept occupied and its supply line always stretched.

7. With USA engaged stance, its geographical concentration is weakened allowing scattering of assets favourable to China limited naval presence.

8. Over time with such bases and full staff/support/ assets, China will be in a position to launch multiple front attacks simultaneously thereby defeating potential adversaries like India within the conventional realm easily.

"In the end, the military perspective is to create an uncertainty and uneasiness aspect to keep India thinking forever. With propping up multiple issues in these Strings, India remains engaged and China will keep on weaving a net to tighten our geopolitical manoeuvres further."

NEXT : Chapter -5 : Remedial Measures to break the Chakravyuh

To be continued ..

JAIHIND
VANDE MATARAM